If you've spent any time house hunting in the West Valley over the past couple of years, you've probably run into a version of this headline: "Buckeye's water supply is in trouble." It's an understandable worry, and it deserves a real answer, not a slogan. So let's walk through what's actually documented, city by city, agency by agency, and separate the long-term planning conversation from the short-term panic.
The 2023 pause, explained honestly
In January 2023, the Arizona Department of Water Resources (ADWR) released its Hassayampa Sub-basin Groundwater Model report. The finding: the sub-basin was projected to fall about 15 percent short of what would be needed to guarantee new 100-year water supplies through groundwater alone, according to the City of Buckeye's own water portfolio page. That triggered a state-level pause on new groundwater-based 100-year Assured Water Supply certifications for undeveloped land in parts of the Valley, Buckeye included.
The effect on the ground was real. Buckeye Mayor Eric Orsborn told Axios the city had lost roughly two years of homebuilding and infrastructure progress, and that the policy brought growth in Tartesso, one of the city's hottest-selling communities, to a near standstill. Reporting from Axios also noted that while about 10,000 already-approved but unbuilt homes exist in Buckeye, many are effectively "stranded," because the infrastructure to serve them can't be financed until additional homes are approved nearby.
That's the part of the story that made headlines. It's true, and it's worth taking seriously. But it's also only half the picture.
What "100-year assured water supply" actually means for current owners
Here's the detail that tends to get lost: the 2023 pause applied to new groundwater-based certifications for undeveloped land. It did not, and does not, touch existing homes. Every home and business currently built in Buckeye already holds a 100-year Certificate of Assured Water Supply (CAWS) issued by ADWR, a legal requirement under Arizona law before that property could have been built in the first place, according to the city's official response to the ADWR report. In fact, no new development in Buckeye, whether housing, retail, or industrial, can move forward without one, unless it's a build-to-rent community.
The City of Buckeye states this plainly on its own water resources page: current water resources are sufficient to sustain existing customers and all growth that has already received a Certificate of Assured Water Supply, and the certificates already issued will support another 20 to 25 years of growth on top of what's built today.
The city already bought its way past the problem
Buckeye didn't just wait for the state to sort things out. In February 2023, the Buckeye City Council approved the purchase of land in the Harquahala Valley that comes bundled with a water right equivalent to nearly 6,000 acre-feet, close to 1.9 billion gallons, per year for the next 100 years, per the city's water portfolio. That's a physical, contractual supply the city now owns outright, on top of its existing groundwater portfolio, and it's part of a deliberate move away from relying on a single water source.
And the picture has kept improving since then. In October 2025, EPCOR became the first water provider in 25 years to receive Arizona's new Alternative Designation of Assured Water Supply (ADAWS), a pathway created by ADWR in 2024 that lets a provider earn a 100-year designation by building its supply around renewable sources and replenishment rather than stressed groundwater. That designation reopened development across parts of the West Valley, including Buckeye and Surprise, after the two-year pause, according to a review of Arizona's assured-water-supply framework. It secures supply for roughly 140,000 existing residents and unlocks up to 60,000 new homes in the areas that had been frozen.
Governor Katie Hobbs has also pushed to extend the ADAWS framework further, specifically citing Buckeye and Queen Creek as the two communities hit hardest by the original moratorium, according to Axios' coverage of the state's housing and water policy talks.
What Buckeye's own numbers project
On its economic development site, the City of Buckeye lays out the current pipeline: ADWR has issued Certificates of Assured Water Supply covering 23,000 single-family units already in the pipeline, plus another 5,900 multi-family units underway that don't require a CAWS at all, together representing an estimated population increase of about 92,000 residents. The city projects a 2030 population of roughly 186,500, with the workforce and customer base that comes with it.
The honest bottom line
Arizona is having a real, necessary conversation about how it manages water over the next century, and Buckeye is at the center of that conversation because it's growing so fast. That's not a scandal, it's what responsible planning looks like when a city adds tens of thousands of residents in a desert state. The 2023 pause was a genuine speed bump for new groundwater-only certifications on undeveloped land, and it's fair for buyers to ask questions about it.
But "Buckeye is planning carefully for the next 100 years" and "Buckeye is running out of water" are two very different stories, and only one of them is supported by the documented record. Existing homes are secured. The city has already purchased a second, independent water source. And a new state pathway has started unlocking the paused growth again. If you're evaluating a home in Buckeye, that's the actual picture worth basing your decision on.
Sources
City of Buckeye, Water Portfolio
City of Buckeye, Response to the Lower Hassayampa Sub-basin Report
City of Buckeye Economic Development, Water Facts
Axios Phoenix, "Water supply issues are hindering Buckeye's growth" (March 2025)
Axios Phoenix, "Hobbs pitches water plan to resolve housing moratorium that hit Buckeye and Queen Creek" (January 2024)
Arizona Water Info, "Assured Water Supply in Arizona: Can You Build on This Land?"
KJZZ, "Groundwater issues have halted developments in Buckeye. Arizona has a plan to move forward" (October 2025)
This article is for general informational purposes and reflects publicly available reporting and government data as of the publish date. It is not a guarantee of future water availability and should not be the sole basis for a real estate decision.
